The German toy market grew around 3 percent in 2025, licensed products 9. I placed the industry association's figures next to the retail association's and found two shares eight percentage points apart, both describing the same segment.
A Market Growing Again, and One Segment Pulling It
The German toy market stood at 4.5 billion euros in 2025, up from 4.4 billion the year before. The figure comes from the German Toy Industry Association (BVS), published on 19 November 2025 using retail panel data from Circana. From January to 26 October 2025 growth ran at 4 percent; for the full year the association expected around 3 percent. The year before, the market had shrunk by 1 percent.
What is interesting is where the growth comes from. The association reports licensed products at a market share of 33 percent, a new high, growing at 9 percent while unlicensed products gained 1 percent. Within trading cards, the same data puts Pokémon at over 84 percent market share.
A market growing 3 percent overall but 9 percent in one segment is not growing evenly. It is shifting.
Why the Card Sits Where the Box Used To
There is a commercial reason for that shift, and it has little to do with nostalgia. The average selling price in the German toy market was 14.11 euros in 2025, up 1.8 percent year on year, again Circana via the BVS. A booster pack sits at or below that level.
That makes a trading card an item people pick up without making a purchasing decision. It is not a gift you enter the shop for; it is one that joins the basket at the till. Retailers call this impulse merchandise, and impulse merchandise has a property that matters in December: it needs no advice, no size, and no call home to check whether the child already has it.
Then there is repeatability. A model railway is bought once. A booster pack is bought again, by the same person for the same child in the same month. Anyone planning a retail assortment therefore does not sort items into expensive and cheap, but into one-off and recurring.
The Christmas Share in Toys: Why 25 and 33 Percent Are Both Right
Here is the point where two credible sources appear to measure the same thing and arrive at different answers. The German Retail Association (HDE) reports just under 25 percent of annual revenue falling into November and December for the toy segment. The German Toy Industry Association, in that same release of 19 November 2025, puts the last two months at over 33 percent of annual revenue.
That is eight percentage points apart for the same segment and the same two months. Both figures cannot refer to the same population.
The resolution lies in the method, not in the disagreement. The HDE measures retail revenue in the toy trade, meaning what toy shops sell, including everything else that crosses their counters. The BVS measures the toy market through the Circana retail panel, meaning revenue from toys wherever it occurs: specialist retail, online, grocery, electronics chains. One is a trade sector, the other is a product category.
Anyone placing both figures side by side and taking the higher one because it supports their argument has not produced evidence, only a selection. Every share figure needs the question, a share of what. Without the denominator, a percentage is not information.
What Parents Spend, and What Follows From It
For the 2025 Christmas season the BVS commissioned a survey on toy spending: 168 euros per child aged 3 to 12, up from 150 euros the year before. Against the previous year that is 12 percent more.
Those 12 percent are the genuinely notable figure in this piece, because the market as a whole grew around 3 percent over the same period. Willingness to spend per child therefore rose far faster than the market. Two explanations suggest themselves and are not mutually exclusive: there are fewer children in the age bracket, or the money is spread across fewer but more expensive or more frequent purchases.
168 euros divided by the average price of 14.11 euros gives just under 12 items per child. Twelve items are not one gift; they are one gift and eleven occasions, and those eleven occasions are where the trading card sells.
The Downside Rarely Discussed in December
A segment built on impulse and repetition has a weak point, and it does not sit in the sale. It sits afterwards. A booster pack is opened the moment it is given, and an opened pack does not go back. For the retailer that is good news at first, because return rates here are low compared with clothing.
They are not zero, though, and the problem shifts to the secondary market. Anyone who finds in January that they received three boxes of the same set sells them on. What was counted as December revenue reappears in January as supply and pushes down the price of the very product the retailer still has on the shelf.
That is not an argument against the business, it is an argument about timing. Selling trading cards in December means selling against your own January. How the German secondary market sorts itself out I have written up using Cardmarket as the example, and what applies for tax once reselling becomes regular is covered in selling trading cards and tax.
Assortment Planning for December: What Follows From the Figures
With Slabhit we are building live shopping for trading cards, and for us December is the month that shows whether the assortment holds. Three things follow from the figures above, and they apply to anyone selling impulse merchandise.
First: price is the threshold, not the margin. At an average price of 14.11 euros, what decides is not whether an item is good but whether it sits below the level at which someone stops to think. Sorting the assortment by contribution margin and thinning out the cheap positions removes exactly the items that fill the basket.
Second: recurrence beats size. Twelve items per child means twelve buying moments, not one. The question to ask of your own assortment is therefore not which item is the most expensive, but which item gets bought a second time without being advertised.
Third: count January in. The secondary market is not a foreign market, it is your own with four weeks' delay. Sell everything you have in December and you compete with your own customers in January. That is manageable if it was planned for, and painful if it was not.
On retail as a whole and where it is moving I write continuously on my topic page for e-commerce and live commerce. Why the fourth quarter weighs so heavily in the first place is covered in why the fourth quarter decides the retail year.
Frequently Asked Questions
How large is the German toy market?
The German Toy Industry Association put it at 4.5 billion euros for 2025, up from 4.4 billion the year before, based on the Circana retail panel. Growth ran at 4 percent from January to the end of October 2025, with around 3 percent expected for the full year. In 2024 the market had shrunk by 1 percent.
What market share does Pokémon hold in trading cards?
Over 84 percent within the trading card sub-category, according to the Circana data published by the German Toy Industry Association on 19 November 2025. Other trading card games such as Magic, One Piece and Marvel grew by more than 4 million euros combined.
How much do parents spend on toys at Christmas?
168 euros per child aged 3 to 12, up from 150 euros the year before. The figure comes from a survey commissioned by the German Toy Industry Association, published on 19 November 2025. That is an increase of 12 percent, while the market as a whole grew around 3 percent.
Why do the HDE and the BVS report different Christmas shares?
Because they measure different things. The German Retail Association reports just under 25 percent for the toy retail segment, meaning what toy shops sell. The German Toy Industry Association reports over 33 percent for the toy market, meaning revenue from toys across all channels, including online, grocery and electronics chains. Both figures are correct and cannot be reconciled into one.
Why do trading cards work so well as Christmas gifts?
Because they sit below the threshold at which someone makes a purchasing decision. The average selling price in the toy market was 14.11 euros in 2025, with a booster pack below that. Add repeatability: at a Christmas budget of 168 euros per child and that average price, the arithmetic gives just under twelve items, meaning one gift and eleven occasions.
What risk does the retailer face after December?
Their own secondary market. Duplicate or unwanted gifts reappear as supply in January and push down the price of the same product the retailer still holds. Return rates on opened packs are low; the shift happens through resale instead. Anyone planning for December should count January in.
Warm regards,
Dennis Weidner
Note: AI tools supported me in writing this article, and some images were edited with AI. I stand behind its content and every statement with my name.
