Pokémon holds over 84 percent of the German trading card market. Read once that is a success story; read twice it says how little a retailer in this segment decides for themselves. What 30 years reveal about how a product is built.
A Figure Worth Reading Twice
Within trading cards, Pokémon holds over 84 percent market share in Germany. The figure comes from the Circana retail panel and was published by the German Toy Industry Association on 19 November 2025.
Read once, that is a success story. Read twice, it says something else: every other trading card game combined shares less than 16 percent. Magic, One Piece, Lorcana, Yu-Gi-Oh and everything else on the shelf together do not reach a fifth of what a single licence holds.
A segment distributed like that is not a segment. It is one licence with accessories. That is the interesting observation about 30 years of Pokémon, and it has less to do with nostalgia than with risk.
What 30 Years Mean in This Market
The Pokémon Trading Card Game turns thirty in 2026, and the anniversary expansion "30th Celebration" was released on 16 September 2026.
Its design puts collecting logic above playing logic: each booster holds five holographic cards, including one of 30 different Pikachu illustrations, plus a holographic basic energy card. A special Classic Collection booster contains three cards from earlier times.
The decision to make even the basic energy card holographic is the notable one. In play, the energy card is the least significant card there is; you need many and none is special. Printing it holographic adds nothing to the game and everything to the collection: it turns the filler card, the one that otherwise disappears into the pile, into part of the set. Anyone wanting to understand why this product has carried for 30 years will find more here than in any revenue figure.
The Market Behind It, and What Is Pulling It
The German toy market stood at 4.5 billion euros in 2025, up from 4.4 billion the year before, measured by Circana and published by the German Toy Industry Association on 19 November 2025. Growth ran at around 3 percent for the full year, after the market had shrunk by 1 percent in 2024.
That growth is carried by licensed products. They reached a market share of 33 percent, a new high, and grew 9 percent, while unlicensed products gained 1 percent. Licensed goods therefore grew nine times as fast as unlicensed ones.
For retailers that carries an uncomfortable implication. Sharing in the growth means carrying licensed goods. Licensed goods mean somebody else's terms, somebody else's release dates and somebody else's decisions on print runs and availability. The growing part of the assortment is also the part the retailer controls least.
Why One Product Reaches 30 Years and Most Do Not
There is an obvious explanation for longevity, and it is rarely true: the product is simply good. With Pokémon something more concrete can be named, and it comes down to three properties that transfer to other businesses.
First, the entry price is low and the ceiling is open. The average selling price in the German toy market was 14.11 euros in 2025, with a booster pack below that. There is no upper limit, because the secondary market sets it rather than the manufacturer. A product starting at five euros and not stopping at five thousand serves two buyer groups with the same goods.
Second, the range renews itself without devaluing what came before. A new expansion does not devalue old cards, it makes them scarcer. That is the difference from almost every other consumer good, where the successor model marks down its predecessor.
Third, the audience grew up with it. Anyone who started as a child in 1996 is in their mid-thirties today and has an income. The industry association attributes the growth explicitly to buyers over twelve. A product that keeps its buyers rather than replacing them needs no customer acquisition, only occasions.
The Concentration Risk Nobody Discusses During a Boom
Back to those 84 percent. For the rights holder that is a position. For everyone else in the market it is a risk, and it sits where it is easy to miss.
A retailer whose trading card revenue comes four fifths from one licence does not have an assortment area, they have a dependency. They carry three risks they do not control: the release rhythm, the allocation and the pricing policy of a single manufacturer. If an expansion lands weakly or an allocation is cut, what goes missing is not part of the revenue but the whole area.
This is the same mechanism I described for segments with heavy Christmas dependency in why the fourth quarter decides the retail year, only along the assortment axis instead of the time axis. The German Retail Association reports just under 25 percent of annual revenue falling into two months for the toy segment. Anyone in such a segment who additionally has four fifths of an area hanging on one licence has stacked two concentration risks, one in time and one in content.
That is no reason not to carry the licence. It is a reason to carry the second supplier as well, even where it turns over more slowly.
What Pokémon's Market Share Means for Retailers
With Slabhit we are building live shopping for trading cards, and for us the question of how far to tie yourself to one licence is a practical one.
First: the market leader's share is a measure of your own room to act. At 84 percent it is not the retailer who determines the assortment but one manufacturer's release calendar. That figure belongs in assortment planning, not in market analysis.
Second: longevity comes from the design, not the brand. Low entry, open ceiling, renewal without devaluing the existing range, an audience that grew up with it. Those properties can be tested against any product of your own, and wherever one is missing you know why revenue needs occasions.
Third: the second supplier is insurance, not a revenue source. It will turn over more slowly, and it still belongs in the assortment. Delist it because the metric is weak and you have delisted your hedge.
How the German secondary market sorts itself out is covered in Cardmarket broken down, and how to recognise counterfeit cards in spot fake Pokémon cards. I write about the topic continuously on my page for e-commerce and live commerce.
Frequently Asked Questions
What market share does Pokémon hold in German trading cards?
Over 84 percent within the trading card sub-category, according to the Circana data published by the German Toy Industry Association on 19 November 2025. That leaves less than 16 percent for every other trading card game combined.
When does the Pokémon Trading Card Game turn 30?
In 2026. The anniversary expansion "30th Celebration" was released on 16 September 2026. According to pokemon.com, each booster contains five holographic cards, including one of 30 different Pikachu illustrations, plus a holographic basic energy card.
How fast are licensed products growing in the toy market?
By 9 percent, against 1 percent for unlicensed products, according to figures from the German Toy Industry Association of 19 November 2025. The market share of licensed products reached a new high at 33 percent. The market as a whole grew around 3 percent in 2025 to 4.5 billion euros.
Why is a high market leader share a risk for retailers?
Because it moves the decision-making. A retailer whose trading card revenue comes four fifths from one licence carries three risks they do not control: the release rhythm, the allocation and the pricing policy of a single manufacturer. If an expansion lands weakly or an allocation is cut, what goes missing is not part of the revenue but the whole area.
Why do trading cards last for decades?
Three properties of the design rather than the brand: a low entry price with an open ceiling, because the secondary market sets it; renewal that makes the existing range scarcer instead of devaluing it; and an audience that grew up with the product rather than needing to be replaced. The industry association attributes the growth explicitly to buyers over twelve.
Why is the holographic energy card notable?
Because in play the basic energy card is the least significant card there is: you need many and none is special. Printing it holographic adds nothing to the game and everything to the collection, because it turns the filler card that otherwise disappears into the pile into part of the set.
Warm regards,
Dennis Weidner
Note: AI tools supported me in writing this article, and some images were edited with AI. I stand behind its content and every statement with my name.
