Revenue is fixed on 31 December; margin is not. The two widely quoted German return rates sit a factor of four apart, because one of them never named its denominator.
The Christmas Season Is Settled in January
Retail measures its fourth quarter in revenue. Revenue is fixed at the end of December; margin is not. Between the two sits the return, and it arrives late. Anyone reporting a record on 31 December does not yet know their result.
For Germany, Björn Asdecker of the University of Bamberg expected 550 million return parcels in 2025, reported on 27 November 2025. Four years earlier, for 2021, the same research group had counted just under 530 million return shipments containing around 1.3 billion items, published on 7 September 2022.
Between those two values lie four years and 3.8 percent. Annualised that is under one percent. The number was reported as a record, and it is one. It still describes something closer to a standstill than an escalation, because online retail itself grew faster over those four years.
The Figure Everyone Quotes That Never Says What It Means
Search for the German return rate and you find two values far apart. The Bamberg research group says almost every fourth parcel comes back in Germany. The e-commerce association bevh reported an average return rate of over six percent for Germany against 3.8 percent in cross-border business.
That is roughly a factor of four. Both come from credible institutions. They simply do not measure the same thing, and that is the actual news.
Two things need saying, and the usual retelling omits both. First, the six percent figure is old. It comes from a bevh release dated 12 October 2020 and is still passed along as a current rate. Second, that release never names the denominator. It states that surveyed retailers report an average return rate of over six percent for Germany, and leaves open whether that refers to parcels, individual items or order value.
That choice decides the level of the rate. From 1.3 billion items in just under 530 million parcels it follows that a return parcel holds 2.45 items on average. Counting parcels rather than items therefore shifts the result by more than a factor of two, and using order value shifts it again, because expensive goods come back differently from cheap ones.
Plan your logistics from such a figure and you are planning for a quarter of the actual volume. That is the practical consequence, and in January it hits hardest those with the least slack.
Why Germany Leads Here, and Why It Is Not the Customer
The explanation for the high German rate is usually sought in consumer behaviour. The Bamberg figures show otherwise. In the European retailer survey published on 7 September 2022, Germany stood against the rest of the EU as follows:
- 51.7 days average return window against 28.1 days
- 88.7 percent of retailers offering free returns against 52.4 percent
- 28.8 percent share of purchase on invoice against 9.9 percent
The German return window is therefore about 1.8 times as long as in the rest of the EU. All three are retailer decisions, not customer characteristics. Purchase on invoice means the goods are in the home before money has moved, which lowers the barrier to ordering and with it the barrier to sending back.
Customers behave predictably within a framework that retail itself has set. That puts the solution with retail. A single retailer cannot reach customer habits; their own return window is another matter.
What Actually Happens to Returned Goods
A common belief holds that returns end up in landfill. The Bamberg survey contradicts that clearly. Of returned items, 93.2 percent were resold as new and 1.3 percent disposed of directly, as of the publication of 7 September 2022.
The 1.3 percent are not a footnote all the same. Applied to 1.3 billion items that is around 17 million items destroyed.
The environmental question does not hang on disposal anyway, it hangs on transport. The research group calculated roughly 1,500 grams of CO2 equivalent per returned item and arrived at about 795,000 tonnes for Germany in 2021. The overwhelming share arises while goods move and are processed.
What a Return Costs, and Why the Figure Looks Small
The research group puts average transport and handling costs at 2.85 euros per returned item. That sounds manageable. Extrapolated to 1.3 billion items it comes to around 3.7 billion euros a year.
More important than the total is what the 2.85 euros exclude. They cover transport and handling. They do not cover the loss in value of the goods, the floor space tied up, the capital idle between dispatch and restocking, or the revenue not earned from that item in the meantime. Costing at 2.85 euros costs the logistics, not the return.
In practice what counts is how long the item spends unsellable in transit. In January that is the bottleneck, because everything comes back at once and restocking becomes a queue.
What I Take From This, Including the Part That Applies Outside Retail
I do not write this as an observer. With Slabhit we are building live shopping for trading cards, a format in which the customer sees the goods on camera before buying and can ask before ordering. Three things I take from these figures.
First: the rate is the wrong control variable. It can be lowered by selling less. What counts is the time an item spends between coming back and being sellable again, and the number of items losing value along the way.
Second: the causes sit before the order. Return window, free returns and payment method are your own decisions. Trying to lower a return rate without touching those three levers is working on the symptom.
Third, and this reaches far beyond retail: every rate needs its denominator. Behind the gap between "every fourth parcel" and "over six percent" lies a missing reference base. Asking for the denominator costs a minute and saves a plan, and it works the same for returns, conversion rates, defect rates or market shares.
How the fourth quarter builds up in the first place is covered in why the fourth quarter decides the retail year, and what happens on the promotional weekend in Black Friday and Cyber Monday. I write about this continuously on my topic page for e-commerce and live commerce.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many returns does Germany see each year?
Björn Asdecker of the University of Bamberg expected 550 million return parcels for 2025, reported on 27 November 2025. For 2021 the same research group had counted just under 530 million return shipments containing around 1.3 billion items. Between the two values lie four years and 3.8 percent, which is under one percent a year.
What is the return rate in Germany?
Almost every fourth parcel comes back, according to the Returns Management Research Group at the University of Bamberg. The often quoted figure of over six percent from the bevh comes from a release dated 12 October 2020 that does not name its denominator. Since a return parcel holds 2.45 items on average, the choice between parcels and items alone shifts the result by more than a factor of two.
Are returned goods destroyed?
Overwhelmingly not. According to the University of Bamberg survey of 7 September 2022, 93.2 percent of returned items were resold as new and 1.3 percent disposed of directly. Applied to 1.3 billion items, that 1.3 percent still amounts to around 17 million items.
What does a return cost the retailer?
The University of Bamberg puts average transport and handling costs at 2.85 euros per returned item. That excludes the loss in value of the goods, the floor space tied up, the idle capital and the revenue foregone while the item is unsellable. The 2.85 euros are the logistics cost, not the cost of the return.
Why does Germany have Europe's highest return rate?
The University of Bamberg survey names three factors, all of them retailer decisions: an average return window of 51.7 days against 28.1 days in the rest of the EU, 88.7 against 52.4 percent free returns, and a 28.8 against 9.9 percent share of purchase on invoice. Customers behave within a framework retail itself has set.
What is the environmental impact of a return?
The research group calculated roughly 1,500 grams of CO2 equivalent per returned item and arrived at about 795,000 tonnes for Germany in 2021. The overwhelming share comes from transport and handling, not from disposal.
Warm regards,
Dennis Weidner
Note: AI tools supported me in writing this article, and some images were edited with AI. I stand behind its content and every statement with my name.
